5 weeks after the start of the “Safe 2 percent loan” it seems to have driven up real estate prices

“Safe 2% credit”. is a government subsidy program for mortgage loans, the purpose of which is to facilitate the purchase of the first apartment. People who are already property owners are excluded from the program. In the case of married couples, the condition must be met by both spouses, so if one of them has a flat purchased before entering into a relationship, this excludes the couple from applying for the subsidy.

“Safe 2% credit”. How many contracts have been signed so far?

The first banks started accepting applications for loans with a subsidy on July 3. During the first five weeks of the “Safe Credit 2%” program, Poles submitted approx. 24,000 applications. conclusions. At that time, the banks signed agreements with 1192 borrowers using the government program. The subsidies will benefit the beneficiaries, but there are more winners: the demand for flats has increased, so sellers can raise prices. And they did not fail to take advantage of this opportunity.

“Browsing through real estate offers on advertising portals, it can be noticed that the percentage of offers in the price range of PLN 700-800 thousand has increased significantly. PLN (i.e. the maximum possible value of funds at the disposal of the borrowers of the Secure Credit 2 percent)” – we read in the latest AMRON-SARFIN report, which is devoted to the impact of the program on the real estate market. “therefore, we can see how the market is adjusting to the new credit conditions,” its authors conclude.

Prices were expected to rise

The authors pointed out that already during the work on formulating the assumptions of the program, many experts and real estate market analysts were skeptical about this program. It was a common opinion that the introduction of such a form of credit would increase the offer prices of real estate. Demand for housing will increase due to better availability of housing loans for a wide range of people, while the supply of real estate will not increase, which will be the main reason for the increase in prices on the market. The closer the launch of the program, the more visible its impact on prices, as shown by analyzes of changes in offer prices available on the Internet. Since the announcement of the program in mid-December 2022, real estate prices have been increasing month by month.

Such warnings – as exaggerated and unjustified – were ignored by the Minister of Development and Technology, Waldemar Buda, who is responsible for the implementation of the program.

– Annually, approx. 230,000 sqm are built in Poland. flats. About 30,000 will go to the program, so it will not increase prices. Today, there are no buyers for flats, developers are phasing out construction projects. If someone says that prices will increase, they do not understand this roar and let them update their knowledge – said the minister in March in “Sygnały Dnia”. – We are worried that developers will not limit construction projects due to the demand problem.

Housing prices rose in large cities by as much as PLN 2,000. zloty

What the minister did not allow, is simply happening today. AMRON calculates that while half a year ago the average price of an apartment in Krakow (on the primary and secondary market) was PLN 12.5 thousand. PLN/m2, in July 2023 the prices increased to PLN 14,000. PLN/m2 on the primary market and 14.5 thous. PLN/m2 on the secondary market.

In Warsaw, prices began to rise at the end of 2022. Currently, both on the secondary and primary markets, they average around PLN 16,000. PLN/sq. m. In mid-December, the average unit price was approx. PLN 14.5 thousand. PLN/sq m. This means that prices increased by 10% in six months.

“Safe loan 2 percent. is another program that proves that this type of government action, theoretically supporting the creditworthiness of Poles, primarily causes an increase in demand for housing. Sellers take advantage of this phenomenon by increasing the offer prices of flats. The positive aspect of the introduced program will be felt only by those who take advantage of the Safe 2% loan, while for the remaining, overwhelming group of buyers (those who do not meet the conditions for obtaining such a loan), the possibility of buying their own apartment again becomes more remote, says AMRON.

There are no limits to the program this year: all eligible applicants will receive funding. From next year, the limits are to come into force, but it has not been specified whether they will cover the number of applicants or the maximum amount that will be distributed.