Apartments in the largest cities are more expensive. Won’t it be better?

PKO BP economists have prepared an analysis of the housing market in Poland. The estimates presented by the bank experts indicate that the average transaction price per sq m. apartments on the primary market in the six largest cities increased in the second quarter of this year by 5.1 percent. on a quarterly basis and by 5.9 percent. compared to an annual increase of 5%. year-on-year in the first quarter of 2023.

Housing prices. Decrease in smaller cities

In the remaining ten voivodeship cities, the price fell by 0.7 percent. quarter-on-quarter and 1.5 percent. year-on-year versus an increase of 7.8 percent. year-on-year in the first quarter of this year.

Bank experts point out that in the second quarter of this year. Among the six largest cities, only Poznań recorded a slight decrease in the average transaction price on the primary market compared to the previous quarter.

Average price per square meter in the most expensive market in the group of six largest cities, Warsaw, currently amounts to 13.8 thousand square meters. PLN, and on the cheapest market in Łódź 8.5 thousand. zloty. Over the past five years, the average price has increased by 75%. The highest price dynamics was recorded in this period on the markets in Gdańsk (87%), Kraków (82%) and Wrocław (81%), and the lowest in Poznań (57%).

Housing prices will not fall?

– We expect that apartment prices will remain in an upward trend in the medium term, with a clear increase in their annual growth in the second half of 2023. The reason for this forecast is primarily a significant decline in the offer as a result of freezing many new development investments last year, following the observed then a drop in demand – PKO BP economists write.

However, experts point out that they see clear signs of recovery on the demand side of the market. The bank’s economists indicate that the increase in apartment sales is the result of the end of the cycle of interest rate increases and the emergence of expectations for interest rate cuts among investors, as well as the launch of the program of subsidizing loan installments.

– In the first half of the year, the increase in sales concerned the primary market, which is somewhat favored among investment buyers. However, the launch of the program of subsidizing loan installments will probably also boost sales on the secondary market. We observe that in the first weeks of July Safe Credit 2 percent. enjoys great interest, which is related to the implementation of postponed demand – from the announcement of the program to its entry into force, decisions to purchase the first apartment were withheld – emphasize PKO BP experts.