Developers were asked how much more they pay for plots. This bodes ill for the real estate market

As part of its cyclical survey, the National Bank of Poland recently asked almost a quarter of domestic developers building blocks of flats about the conditions for conducting business. One of the questions related to the prices of land for multi-family construction.

Prices of building plots are rising

The average of developers’ survey responses to the question by what percentage the net price of land for multi-family housing projects in very good locations changed in a given year (result from 16 provincial cities) was as follows:

• 2019 – increase by 25%.

• 2020 – 22 percent

• 2021 – 42 percent

• 2022 – 30 percent

• 2023 – 32 percent

Analogous results regarding changes in land prices for multi-family buildings in average locations (16 voivodeship cities) are as follows:

• 2019 – increase by 17%.

• 2020 – 13 percent

• 2021 – 27 percent

• 2022 – 17 percent

• 2023 – 20 percent

With such growth rates, it is difficult to assume that real estate may start to become cheaper.

What will affect the costs of building houses?

Wojciech Rynkowski from Extradom.pl, a website offering house designs, has prepared an analysis of six factors that will affect house construction prices in the next two quarters. Some of them are directly related to construction, others concern the entire economy. Their impact, although it may seem non-obvious at first glance, will certainly be felt.

In the first place he placed possible subsidies for loans – a continuation of the “Safe 2% Credit” program. Despite the loud announcements, it is not certain whether the next subsidy program will come into force, and it is even more unclear when it will happen. – After the experience with the 2% Safe Credit, legislators included several safeguards in it that are intended to limit increases in prices of apartments and houses, especially in attractive locations – he believes.

We wrote a few weeks ago that Donald Tusk’s election campaign promise will not be fulfilled. Not only the coalition partners, but even some MPs from the Civic Platform are reluctant to subsidize the loan. The reason for rejecting this form of support is the negative effect the program had on the real estate market last year: anticipating an increase in interest, developers, and consequently also sellers on the secondary market, increased the price. And they were not wrong, because buyers, tempted by the subsidies, started shopping.

Politicians are afraid of 0% loans.

The selection was relatively small in the second half of 2023. For over 2 years, significantly fewer apartments have been put into use than before the pandemic, which was the result of first slower progress due to the pandemic, and later high interest rates, which significantly limited the credit possibilities of Poles.

Due to the small offer, sellers could afford to raise prices. In October last year, we reported that the price of apartments in Krakow had increased by 28 percent over 12 months. In Katowice, prices went up by 23 percent, in the Tricity by 19 percent, in Warsaw by 18 percent, and in Poznań – by 13 percent. Linking this to the loan subsidy program, which only a few people could benefit from (several conditions had to be met), is not an exaggeration.