It’s cheap (apparently) now. From 2024, apartment prices are to start increasing
Apartment prices on the primary market may remain at the level observed in the third quarter of this year until the end of 2023. In 2024, they will start to go up again – according to an analysis by Credit Agricole.
Credit Agricole economists regularly publish housing price forecasts for the seven largest Polish cities: Warsaw, Gdańsk, Gdynia, Łódź, Kraków, Poznań and Wrocław. In the latest report, they admitted that they had previously underestimated the scale of the increases, among others. on building materials.
In 2024, real estate prices will start to rise again
The verified estimates are unfavorable for people who hope to buy a flat in the near future: in 2024, prices will increase by 5.5%. compared to 2.2 percent in 2023. In 2025, this dynamics is expected to reach 8.4%.
The authors of the forecast, citing NBP data, state that from Q4 2021 to Q3 this year. the average transaction price of premises in seven cities increased by 10.9%, including 4.5%. in the first quarter of 2022. The forecast presented by economists in April turned out to be too cautious – they assumed a price increase of 3%. q/q in the first quarter of this year and their stabilization in the following quarters. The dynamics of building materials prices turned out to be higher than expected, and the unemployment rate was lower.
These forecasts are based on several assumptions. However, several points are uncertain and may result in reality differing from forecasts. Uncertainty factors include, among others: the impact of higher interest rates on the demand for apartments and their prices, with a probable simultaneous reduction in the supply of apartments by developers in the coming years. The government’s announcement that it will initiate a mortgage loan program with a low interest rate is also unclear. They would be intended for people who are buying their first apartment.
Banks granted 70 percent loans less than in September 2021
The thought that apartment prices will start rising again in four quarters is the nightmare of people who want to believe that they will soon be able to buy their own property. Due to the strict conditions for obtaining a loan – which is currently record-breakingly expensive – the sale of apartments has slowed down significantly. In total, in the third quarter of 2022, the number of apartments sold, based on the reports presented so far, decreased by 46%. compared to the third quarter of 2021. In September, 70% more fewer loans than in September 2021.
Unfortunately, assuming that prices will start to fall is far-reaching optimism. Rising gas prices will continue to increase the price of many construction materials. Fortunately, steel prices have slowed down, but it cannot be ruled out that they will also start to rise. In recent months, developers have limited the number of construction starts, so customers will be able to choose apartments from a limited pool, which will also make the prices less attractive.
