Prof. Dudek on the Left’s result. “She fell victim to two factors.”

Almost at the end of the campaign, during a rally in Żywiec, one of the co-chairmen of the Left, Włodzimierz Czarzasty, promised the party to co-govern. Everything indicates that the promise will be fulfilled, although the election result is hardly ideal – the party obtained 8.61 percent. support, which translates into a loss of 23 MPs compared to the previous term. What does this mean for the New Left?

Prof. Dudek on Czarzasty: Indistinct leadership

– It is only weaker in terms of the number of MPs, but stronger because it can co-govern – says Prof. about the result. Antoni Dudek. He draws attention to one of the reasons for the poor result in terms of the number of deputies in the Sejm, although not the only one: unclear leadership.

– Theoretically, Włodzimierz Czarzasty was the most visible in the campaign. My hypothesis that he is unpopular was spectacularly confirmed by his very poor result, and in the most, in my opinion, pro-left district, which is Sosnowiec. Let his colleagues draw conclusions, says the political scientist.

An excellent result in district no. 32 was achieved by Łukasz Litewka, a candidate who was almost absent from traditional media during the campaign. He gained great recognition, among others. thanks to posters which, in addition to the candidate’s photo, included photos of dogs from shelters with contact details for those interested in adoption. The councilor collected 40,579 votes, and Włodzimierz Czarzasty 22,332. Both politicians will enter the Sejm.

However, according to the political scientist, the Left “is unlikely to be reborn in Poland” under Czarzasty’s leadership.

Now two hypothetical leaders of the party – Robert Biedroń, Adrian Zandberg, and maybe even women in this party – have a chance to come to the forefront and take Czarzasty’s place. This may help the Left in the next elections, says Prof. Hoopoe.

– Czarzasty was praised for good performance on October 1, but one successful speech is not enough to create an entire campaign. Scheuring-Wielgus did much more for the Left with her appearance during a pseudo-debate on TVP. If I had to speculate on who provided more votes, I think it would be her.” – he assessed.

Prof. Dudek points out that parties in Poland suffer from leadership problems. – Polish politics is built on the leader system. We need a leader, a leader, but one specific person. And basically this is the problem of all other formations. Apart from PiS and the Civic Coalition, all other parties have a greater or lesser leadership problem, he said.

Obstacles for the Left. “There were no tactical voters”

Analyzing the Left’s result, weaker compared to 2019, prof. Dudek pointed out two obstacles. In his opinion, the Left fell victim to two factors: the Civic Coalition’s shift to the left and the voters’ belief that it would definitely break the 5% threshold.

– There was no so-called tactical voting for the Left, which, for example, helped the Third Way a lot – says the political scientist. He also points out that many potential KO voters were afraid that Hołownia’s party would not exceed the electoral threshold, 8%. for the coalition. – The most effective slogan of this election campaign also worked: “third way or third term of PiS.” As a result, maybe even half or 1/3 of Third Way voters are accounted for by tactical voters, which were absent in the case of the Left, he says.

How many ministries for the Left? “Tusk will adopt parities”

By joining the coalition with KO and Third Way, the left will seek positions in the government. The portal wycza.biz reported that the party was interested in the ministries of education and potentially taking over a new ministry dealing with housing. What might her position in the new government look like?

– I think Tusk will adopt the parity principle. Of course, this will not be a perfect representation of the proportions, but I expect that in the twenty-something Left government there will be at least two seats in the government. In fact, we will have a strong Civic Coalition, which also has smaller coalition partners, and the rest, where the Left will find its place – says the political scientist. He adds that the Third Way is only apparently more powerful because it consists of two entities.

The education center is a field for ambitious people. Who will succeed Minister Czarnek?

The political scientist predicts that a lot will depend on which specific politicians will join the government on behalf of the Left and which ministries they will take over. – Especially how they will deal with them. Each government has more and less popular ministers. If such a minister proves effective, he will be a natural candidate to take over Czarzasty’s legacy. Unless Czarzasty also joins the government? I don’t know that, he explains. According to prof. Dudek, especially the Ministry of Education, may be an opportunity for the new minister to prove himself.

Here, after Mr. Czarnek, hypothetically every successor can make a good impression. Especially if Tusk keeps his word and starts fulfilling his promise of pay raises for teachers announced during the campaign. Then this person can gain a lot for the Left. And personally, for myself.

According to him, housing will be a much more difficult area to develop. During the campaign, the New Left promised, among others: construction of 300 thousand apartments for rent. – A minister will be doomed to failure from the start – he says.

– People of the Left cite the example of Vienna. But this is a problem of scale and a huge financial, legal and organizational problem. I don’t have the impression that anyone will be able to solve it, especially since the Left started on a high note by saying that housing is a right, not a commodity. How can we satisfy this right for everyone in the shortest possible time? We will see – says prof. Hoopoe.