Retail sales are still down, but economists see a positive change

Retail sales at constant prices fell 2.7% in August. on an annual basis, and on a monthly basis it increased by 2.8%. – the Central Statistical Office reported on Thursday. In turn, retail sales at current prices increased by 3.1% last month. Every year.

Mariusz Zielonka: there is some recovery after a weak July

August retail sales data show that consumption is slowly rebounding and consumers are returning to stores. Economists predict that we will see an increase in retail sales volume in the coming months.

“Retail sales haven’t had such a bad run for almost 20 years. In August we spent 2.7% on shopping. less than a year ago. This is the eighth month in a row that retail sales have recorded negative dynamics. However, it should be added that the forecasts for August were much worse, -3.7%. – wrote the Lewiatan Confederation in a comment.

– In August we spent 2.7% on shopping. less than a year ago. This is the eighth month in a row when retail sales show negative dynamics – notes Mariusz Zielonka, economic expert at Lewiatan.

He added that the declines – when taking into account industries – are not uniform. – Sales are recovering throughout the year, just like the automotive industry. Other sales categories are in the red, with the largest sales of press and books in August – 14.3%. – he enumerates. A positive that deserves to be taken into account is some rebound after a weak July.

ING Bank Śląski analysts: consumption will be the main driver of GDP growth in 2024

The Polish Economic Institute wrote in a commentary that retail sales in August are still weak, although the rate of decline has been decreasing for 4 months. “We anticipate a return to growth by the end of the year. This is supported by the improvement in the financial situation of households,” economists believe.

ING Bank Śląski analysts wrote that the recovery of real incomes and improved consumer sentiment favor the revival of consumption. “We will see a more significant rebound in the fourth quarter of 2023. Consumption will be the main driver of GDP growth in 2024,” they estimate.