S&P lowers GDP forecast for Poland. Reason given
S&P Global Ratings lowered Poland's GDP growth forecast for this year to 2.8%. with 3.1 percent due to the poor economic situation in Western Europe. Economists predict a decline in inflation.
– Weak growth in Western Europe led us to slightly lower our 2024 GDP forecasts for Hungary (2.2% from 2.6% previously) and Poland (2.8% from 3.1% previously). In both economies, domestic demand rose in the second half of last year before losing momentum earlier this year – we read in the report “Economic Outlook Emerging Markets Q2 2024: Growth Divergence Ahead”.
Poland's GDP forecasts
S&P Global Ratings expects Poland's GDP to grow by 3.1%. and 2.9 percent in 2025-2026 and by 2.8%, respectively. in 2027. This is still a good pace, considering that in 2023 the pace dropped to 0.2%. with 5.3 percent in 2022
The agency forecasts average annual CPI inflation of 5.4%. this year, 4.1 percent next year and 3.7 percent in 2026-2027. According to the NBP projection, the central path, assuming the extension of anti-inflation shields, means the CPI inflation rate in 2024 amounting to an average of 5.7%. In 2025, it is expected to drop to 3.5%, and in 2026 to 2.7%.
According to the new projection, the growth rate of Polish GDP is to accelerate to 3.2 percent in such a scenario. in 2024. In 2025 and 2026 it is expected to be 3.6 percent, respectively. and 3.2 percent Inflation forecasts are lower and GDP slightly higher than in the November forecast.
Let us recall that at the end of last week the Moody's rating agency announced the decision to maintain Poland's rating at the A2/P1 level for long- and short-term liabilities, respectively. Justifying the maintenance of the rating at the current level, the agency pointed to Poland's strong economic and fiscal foundations and strong institutional framework, including the strengthening of civil society and the judiciary.
