The new government wants to take control of the real estate market, but the loan is 0%. that’s asking for trouble

The lack of housing for average-earning Poles is becoming an increasingly urgent social problem. It cannot be said that the outgoing government did not try to solve it – yes, it made several attempts, but it did not achieve its goals. “Mieszkanie Plus” ended in failure, “Safe Loan” allowed thousands of families to buy a flat, but at the same time it increased their prices so much that today you have to borrow a much larger amount than even a year ago to finalize the purchase. The effect is that using a loan with subsidies, Poles will be able to buy real estate, but the cost of repaying the loan will lead to a larger gap in the household budget.

Safe credit turned out to be a costly experiment

Donald Tusk announced that when he comes to power, “Safe 2% credit”. will be replaced with a zero loan, because, as he argued, only this will be real help for people who want to buy their first apartment. This promise was first made a few months before the start of the government program and Tusk’s advisors did not know then that the subsidies would lead to such a significant disruption of the market. Today we have proof that subsidies are not a good idea in a situation where there are few premises on the market (over the last two years, developers have significantly limited investments, which in turn was the result of high interest rates, which increased the costs of loans, which in turn translated into to little interest in them).

Marek Wielgo, expert of the portals RynekPierwotny.pl and GetHome.pl, noted that the situation was particularly dramatic in Krakow, where at the end of September the offer of developers was 51 percent higher. fewer apartments than nine months ago. In the capital, the offer of premises decreased by 41% during this time, and in Wrocław – by 38%.

There are fewer and fewer apartments priced up to PLN 800,000. zloty

According to data from the Credit Information Bureau, in September banks granted 18.1 thousand. loans (+34.8% m/m), but according to investment monitoring conducted by Cenatorium in Q3 2023 on primary markets in the largest cities except Warsaw (Kraków, Wrocław, Łódź, Poznań, Gdańsk) the number of transactions decreased by 2%. However, for the second quarter in a row, the number of transactions exceeded 10,000.

The number of apartments offered, the total price of which does not exceed PLN 800,000, is constantly decreasing. PLN, i.e. those that qualify for subsidies from the “Safe Credit 2%” program.

There is a chance that something will change on the supply side, i.e. the availability of apartments. In the last two months, developers started building more apartments than in the first half of the year. According to data from the Central Statistical Office, in September they started building 12.2 thousand. apartments, which means an increase of nearly 18%. compared to August and as much as 40 percent compared to September 2022. Cooling down prices is very much needed, because the opportunity to buy your own apartment in a big city is becoming a rare luxury these days.

The majority of buyers are not families with children

“Apartment prices on the primary market have increased to a level that, in many cases, is no longer available even to beneficiaries of the Safe 2 percent loan program. The development market is again being attacked more by people planning to buy apartments for rent than by families with children and individual consumers,” wrote Mirosław Król, a real estate market expert, in his analysis.

And further: ‘Prices of a square meter in Szczecin have already exceeded PLN 12,000 per square meter. Prices below 10,000 are incidental situations. In Warsaw and Krakow, prices per square meter already exceed PLN 15,000, and the situation may be similar in the Tricity. “In a moment, there will be no city where prices will be below PLN 10,000 on the development market.”

0% loan, what is it?

Like “0% loan”. What do Civic Coalition politicians imagine? Donald Tusk shared details of the idea with the mainstream media and revealed that everything was to be created with young citizens in mind. The proposals included the possibility of paying an additional PLN 600 for the apartment rental and the possibility of taking a 0% loan from a bank. for the selected property. “Housing should be a right, not a commodity,” said the politician, among others. at meetings with residents of many cities.