The real estate price index increased significantly. There is no point in counting on declines

The urban.one index for residential premises in Poland, prepared for Bankier.pl and “Puls Biznesu” by Cenatorium, amounted to 108.54 points in August, compared to 108.04 points in July. The August reading was therefore 0.50 points higher. since last month. This is the fourth month in a row in which the index reading increased on a monthly basis. It was also the strongest monthly increase since the beginning of last year (year-on-year it is lower by 3.02 points).

Why will housing prices increase?

The reading of the urban.one index for large cities (Kraków, Wrocław, Łódź, Poznań, Gdańsk, Gdynia) also increased. In August, 122.81 points were recorded, which means an increase of 0.35 points. compared to July and by 3.55 points. on an annual basis. In Warsaw, the index amounted to 119.71 points (an increase of 0.66 points compared to July and 2.32 points higher than a year ago).

According to experts, the increases currently observed and forecast for the coming months result primarily from the low supply of apartments and the widening gap between supply and demand in the era of the Safe Credit 2% program.

– The development market is struggling with supply shortages. Out of the last 14 months, in 13 cases sales were higher than the number of apartments introduced to the offer – emphasizes Marcin Krasoń, housing market expert at Otodom Analytics, quoted by Bankier.pl.

– At the end of August, in seven main markets (Katowice, Kraków, Łódź, Poznań, Tricity, Warsaw and Wrocław – within the borders of the main cities) it was 37.8 thousand. premises. The last time we recorded a similar value was at the end of 2021 – he adds.

Krasoń emphasizes that the situation is particularly disturbing in Warsaw and Kraków, where the rate of sale of the offer, calculated on the basis of the average sales from the last three months, is 4-5 months.

– This means that if apartments were sold as before and no new ones appeared on the market, the offer would be exhausted in less than half a year – explains the expert.

The least amount of construction in 7 years

Bankier.pl draws attention to a slight increase in the number of construction starts in August. Developers started building 10,781 apartments this month. That’s 16.4 percent. more than in July and by 107.4 percent more than in August 2022.

However, since the beginning of 2023, developers have only started less than 68,000 construction sites, i.e. by 20.1 percent less than in the same period last year. This is the lowest result since 2016.